Sunday, August 9, 2009

EUR/USD: SHORT-Term Bearish Trend to Bottom 1.4030?


Dailies are clearly in a Bullish Channel but the release, last Friday Aug 07th, of the US Unemployment rate lower than expected (9.4% against the expected 9.6%) was quite Bullish to the USD, thus Bearish to the EUR, pushing prices back into the resistance price zone 1.4303 - 1.4337, all the way down to 1.4155.
A correction/pullback of this strong Bearish move is definitely expected to the following resistance levels:
* 1.4207 - low Aug 03rd. Also watch for 1.4200 as it was the High of July 01st
* 1.4257 - Close last Month
* 1.4303 - High last Month and 1st level of price zone 1.4303 - 1.4337
So My strategy is to SELL SHORT at any of these resistance levels, with the target of 1.4030, which is the 62EMA on Dailies as Support, quite close to the lower trendline of the Bullish Channel.
WATCH OUT for the following Support areas:
* 1.4155 - a possible Double-Bottom. I´ll Add SHORT lots after its break and a pullback to it.
* 1.4131 - Monthly Central Pivot
* 1.4095 - importante resistance that became support at the 30-minute chart, which will coincice with a Bullish Trendline at the same 30-minute chart.
An even stronger Bearish Trend might resume if the 1.4008 support level is broken. Watch out for it as well.