Friday, February 15, 2008

EUR/JPY: 62EMA on Dailies at 159.56 on Feb 15th will Hold the Bulls?

Daily Chart30-Minute Chart(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)
# As u can see from the attached daily chart a large symmetrical triangle (thick yellow lines) was broken on Jan 02nd, triggering a bearish move. Then a minor symmetrical triangle was recently formed favouring the continuation of this bearish move. But this triangle got broken to the north side, starting a bullish move thus cancelling the bearish one. This move indeed favours the bulls, as well as the oscillators (see blue lines). A strong resistance is now find at the 62EMA at 159.56, very close to the Jan 30th high at 159.51. A little bit below the 159.50 price zone we have the 50,00% fibo at 159.42. If these levels get broken then a new strong bullish trend might resume.
# Now, taking a short-term approach the 30-minute chart shows a strong bullish trendline (yellow thich line) with MACD showing some exhaution. If this trendline gets broken the we can expect at least a pullback to the upper base of the minor symmetrical triangle. So points are:
## SELL failure 158.50 with STOP 158.80 and LIMITS: 157.90, 157.70, 157.50. If 157.50 gets broken then final LIMIT at 156.20
## SELL break 157.90 with STOP 158.10 and LIMIT 157.50. Close half units, move STOP to entry point and LIMIT at 156.20
If I´m wrong:
## BUY break 158.60 with STOP 158.40 and LIMITS: 159.40 and 159.80.