04-Hour Chart
(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)Prices failed to reach the awaited 1.5000 last Friday Nov. 23th but question that remains is: is 1.4966 the new top? I believe so, due to the following:
# Dailies show a doji last friday Nov. 23th and RSI with a triple bearish divergence as well as MACD forming a triple-top (see white arrows);
# 04-Hour chart shows a beautiful Shooting Star as well as the MACD and RSI with a berish divergence (see white arrows).
After the rally to 1.4966, prices fell back under 1.4900 (123,00% fibo projection up move 1.4122 to 1.4750), under 1.4870 (high Nov. 21th and 22th) and specially under 1.4855, which is exactly the conjunction of 161,80 fibo projection from up move 1.4520 to 1.4725 and the 161,80% of up move 1.3360 to 1.4280. These are the main factors that reinforce this new top. So my points are:
SHORT failure 1.4875 with STOP 1.4905 and LIMITS 1.4775, 1.4755, 1.4725 and 1.4700.
SHORT failure 1.4855 with STOP 1.4875 and LIMITS 1.4775, 1.4755 1.4725 and 1.4700.
SHORT break 1.4825 with STOP 1.4855 with the same limts as above.
Add lots SHORT break 1.4700 with STOP 1.4725 and LIMIT 1.4635.
If I´m wrong, BUY break 1.4900 with tight 10/15-pip stop and limit 1.4960. WATCH FOR FALSE BREAKOUTS
