30-Minute Chart
05-Minute Chart
(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)Daily moves last week definitely favoured the beginning of a major bearish trend: triple-top on Nov. 07th and the break of the main up trendline on Nov. 09 with a pull back to it on Nov. 14th (see red arrow on Daily Chart). But the 260-pip up move last Friday Nov. 16th put a question mark on this possible new bearish trend. The good news is that last Friday´s up move reached the upper base of a symmetrical triangle formed on 240, 30 and 05 minute charts. Remember: a symmetrical triangle is a continuation patter, specially in the beginning of a new trend. So my bets go to the short. Points are:
SHORT break 162.70 (which is the strategy: sell a failure of a break of this symmetrical triangle) and it´s the 123,60% fibo projection from up move 160.60 to 162.33. STOP at 163.00 which is the 138,20% fibo projection of the same up move 160.60 to 162.33. TARGET at lower base of symmetrical triangle that might be around 161.00. If this strategy works, it might be worthed to trail your stop to 76,40% fibo of the bearish move starting at up base of triangle and let your profits run to the target 159.00.
If I´m wrong: LONG break 163.00 consistently (watch for false breakouts) with STOP at 162.70 and TARGET 164.00/80
