EUR: 1.4280 a Brand-New Top?

Saturday, September 29, 2007

EUR: 1.4280 a Brand-New Top?

DAILY CHART

30-MINUTE CHART

(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)
I humbly confess that I do fell compelled to find a top for the EUR. This a very risky physicologic issue. After all, as geniusly stated by John Forman in his book The Essentials of Trading: The human eye will tend to find patterns and make associations, specially if one is looking for them.
Obviously the strong bullish move pulled all daily indicators to an o/b zone. But this is not what favours a bearish correction. The main factors are: 6EMA rubber (close price too far away from it) and all indicators already pointing down on the 30-minute chart.
I do believe in a bearish correction. So my points are:
SELL failure 1.4270/80 with tight stop (20 pips) and 1st target 1.4240 (23% fibo 1.4129 - 1.4280) and 2nd target 1.4220 (38% same fibo). Add lots break 1.4215. trail your stop to break even or 10-pip profit and set target at 1.4095 (6EMA on Daily).
If I´m wrong, BUY break 1.4280 with 20-pip stop and ride the trend.

TRADING STYLE

Even though we are considered Day-Traders, our trading sometimes requires different styles, according to the patterns and/or how the market moves during our trading sessions. All strategies presented in all posts below are for Positioning but, depending on how markets behave, our style can change so that we can capture good trading opportunities......

Our Trading Styles are discriminated as below:

1) Scalping: Short-term trades, usually betwen 2 to 15 minutes, with stops lower than 8 pips, targeting 15 pips. Generally our Scalping trades apply very low stops (5 pips) aiming quick surges in prices of around 10 pips, in a matter of a very few minutes.................................................................................................
2) Day-Trading: this is our main Trading Style where we dedicate most of our time. Their lenght is usually betwen 10 to 60 minutes, sometimes for more than 2 hours, with stops between 10 and 20 pips and targets between 20 and 60 pips...
3) Positioning: Long-Term trades based on Daily and 4-Hour charts, with stops between 20 and 40 pips, targeting minimum 60 pips. Most of these trades have Open Limits......................................................

Money Management

This is a crucial aspect of our trading, considering the different styles we apply to our trading Sessions. As the Positioning Style requires larger stops (usually the double of our Day-Trading Style), their lot size is lower than usual, generally 50% of our standard lot size. As the Scalping style requires lower stops (usually half of our Day-Trading style), their lot size is usually 150% of our standard lot size. For instance: let´s suppose that our current standard lot size is 200K. For Scalping trades the lot size will be 300K and for Positioning it will be 100K...................................

Daily FOREX Analysis - Brasil

Saturday, September 29, 2007

EUR: 1.4280 a Brand-New Top?

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