04-HOUR CHART
(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)
1.3850 all-time highs to be tested again. Will it hold to form a a double-top? Will it get broken to go after the 138.00% fibo projection at 1.3970? I´d say that probabilities of the latter happening are high (daily chart): MACD turning up from o/s area and about to cross its signal line (hasn´t been crossed it yet, so watch out for it..), RSI above its 50 reference line and above its MA, along with the strong bullish move last week favour this break of 1.3850. But NOT without a correction first, as mentioned in the 04-hour chart:
* MACD at very high levels at o/b area and quite away from its signal line;
* RSI reached o/b area and it´s back below its 75 o/b reference line;
* ADX about to kick down with DMI+ already pointing down and DMI- at very low levels:
* not to mention the obvious resistance at 1.3850
These factors favour a correction down, which will probably form a double-top at 1.3850.
I´d say target for this correction down is 1.3725, which is 62% of up move 1.3648 to 1.3850, slightly above the 23% fibo (see blue lines) and above the 62EMA (my main support/resistance line).
So my points are:
# Wait for the 1.3850 retest and enter SHORT at failure. Targets are mentioned above.
# If prices start to get down right now, enter SHORT at break of 1.3800 (23 % yellow fibo lines). But this will have a 20-pip stop with 1st target at 1.3770 (38% same yellow fibo lines)
