Saturday, June 16, 2007

EURO: Is the Morning Star marking a new Bullish Trend?

(CLICK ON THE CHART TO ENLARGE IT)
It seems to. The Morning Star formation completed with the long candle from yesterday June 15th is confirmed by the increase of the MACD line from below its signal line and with the increase of the histogram from below zero line, also showing a bullish divergence. The Star formed on June 13th was at 50% of the fibo from 1.2875 to 1.3694, at 1.3280 (also the close of the next Doji on June 14th). RSI just kicked up from its o/s area and crossed its Moving Average. One important resistane broken on June 15th was the 1.3368, which was a double-top on Dec 04th and 08th, 2007. The increase of the DMI+ also confirms this bullish trend. Next resistance at 1.3413 which was the high on March 22th, the low on May 25th and the 62-Period Exp. Mov. Average on June 15th (my major support/resistance MA).
IMPORTANT: In the short-term we do have to wait for the break of the 1.3413 to confirm this new bullish trend, specially considering that: the 04-Hour chart shows a possible correction with its RSI at o/b levels and with its MACD histogram at its highest point since the past 3 months; the 30-minute chart showing a correction with the friday June 15th close at exactly 50% fibo of 1.3513 to 1.3262 and with its RSI at o/b levels and already below its Mov. Average and, the 1.3410 is the top of a bearish channel. So Friday rally is due for correction and the break of the 1.3413 confirms the long at least to 1.3460.