Daily FOREX Analysis - Brasil

EUR/USD Bullish Trend will Resume Above 1.2664?

2010-07-10T12:12:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Euro continues its Bullish trend, confirmed by the bottom at 1.1860 and by the current bullish pattern Broadening Wedge Ascending. (see light blue lines).
But the formation of the candlestick pattern Dark Cloud Cover at exactly an important Bearish Trendline (see red line) as resistance, and the last week closing below the support 1.2664 indicates a possible short-term bearish correction.
We see then a possible selling opportunity below 1.2612 with a projected limit at 1.2557.
While the prices are above the supports 1.2512 and 1.2483 the bullish momentum remains.
So we foresee good buying opportunities above 1.2664 and specially 1.2723.

http://www.EscolaDeOperadores.com.br

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GBP/USD: Break Down of Trade Range 1.5230 - 1.5082 Shows a Bearish Move...

2010-07-10T12:07:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The break down of the trade range 1.5230 - 1.5082 is a strong indication that a possible bearish move might resume.
Therefore we see good selling opportunities below 1.5050 with a first projected limit at 1.4940.
Other possible selling opportunities might arise at the break of the following supports: 1.4940 / 1.4873 and 1.4850.
If prices return inside this trade range, in other words, above 1.5082 and if the close above 1.5230 this possible bearish move gets cancelled.

http://www.EscolaDeOperadores.com.br

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USD/CHF: The Morning Star will Trigger a Bullish Move?

2010-07-10T12:02:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The CHF is still in a very strong bearish move, specially after breaking down its last Bullish Trendline (see the dark blue lines)
But the formation of the candlestick pattern morning Star last Friday at the important support zone 1.0500 might indicate a possible bullish reversal.
This Morning Star pattern will be confirmed if the next day, Monday July 12th, becomes a bullish one.
Therefore we foresee good buying opportunities above 1.0600 with its possible limit projected at 1.0750.
If prices close below 1.0530 and specially 1.0500, this Morning Star pattern gets cancelled.

http://www.EscolaDeOperadores.com.br

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EUR/USD: Strong Bullish Momentum Up to 1.3115

2010-07-03T12:06:00.004-03:00

(Click on the daily chart to enlarge it)

The confirmation of the Wedge Falling at the historical bottom 1.1880 (see blue lines); the 50% fibo correction (see lilac dotted lines) from the last Bullish move 1.1880 to 1.2468 at the important support area 1.2153 and; the break up of the resistance 1.2468 last week are all strong factors that the current Bullish trend might resume.

Therefore we see good buying opportunities at the support levels 1.2512 and 1.2468 and at the break of the following resistance levels: 1.2612 / 1.2672 and 1.2740.

In the short-term we have an important resistance level at 1.2800. If this resistance doesn´t hold the bulls, in other words, if prices break it up, the possible potencial limits for buying positions are 1.3095 / 1.3115 and 1.3660.

GBP/USD: Bullish Above 1.5126

2010-07-03T12:01:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The support formed at 1.4875 and the break up of the resistance 1.5126 last week confirm Cable´s current Bullish Momentum.

But we only see possible buying opportunities above 1.5212 and specially 1.5230. Watch Out for the following support levels: 1.5140 and 1.5126. If prices close below these support levels we might see a larger than expected bearish correction, with possible good selling opportunities down to the support levels 1.5070 / 1.5018 / 1.4930 and finally 1.4875.

http://www.escoladeoperadores.com.br/

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USD/JPY: Historical Supports at 85.87 and 84.82

2010-07-03T11:53:00.005-03:00

(Click on the daily chart to enlarge it)

The Yen is still in a strong bearish trend, specially after the break down of a significant Bullish Channel (see red lines) and a Symmetrical Triangle (see black lines). These are strong indications that this current bearish trend might resume.

But on the other hand prices are just too close to important historical support levels, such as: 87.14 ( low Dec 17, 2008 and Jan 21, 2009); 85.87 (low Nov 30, 2009) and finally 84.82 (low Nov 26, 2009). These are the lowest price levels since July 1995!

A Doji formation last Friday July 02nd starts to show a possible bearish exaustion. But it´s still early to determine if a bottom has been formed. Therefore we see possible selling opportunities below 87.37 and 87.14. Watch Out for all these historical support levels aforementioned!

www.EscolaDeOperadores.com.br

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EUR/USD: Bullish Trend Above 1.2470?

2010-06-26T10:51:00.002-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

After the confirmation of the historical bottom at 1.1880 by the formation of a significant Wedge Falling, prices started a bullish rally until they found resistance at 1.2468 on June 20th and then started a 38.20% fibo correction at 1.2243.

If this 38.20% fibo correction gets confirmed, which will happen at the break of its top at 1.2468, we foresee a possible bullish rally.

Therefore we see good buying opportunities above 1.2470.

If the prices close below the supports 1.2330 and specially below 1.243, this possible bullish rally gets cancelled.

GBP/USD: The Break of Resistance 1.5068 Will Ignite a Strong Bullish Move?

2010-06-26T10:46:00.003-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices closed at an important resistance area at 1.5068. Prices are still in a Bullish momentum but we cannot take for granted a possible bearish correction after prices closed the week at this resistance level.
Therefore we only foresee good buying opportunities above 1.5090 and 1.5135.
If prices close below 1.5010 this possible bearish correction might be bigger than expected. Therefore watch out if you have long positions.

USD/JPY: The Break of a Symmetrical Triangle Will Ignite a Strong Bearish Move?

2010-06-26T10:38:00.003-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Last week we had the break down of the lower trendline of an important Symmetrical Triangle (see blue lines), which was confirmed by a pullback to this same broken lower trendline at around 91.11. This factor strongly favours the bears.
But now we have the prices at an important support zone at 89.00. Therefore we cannot discard a possible bullish correction before a bearish trend resumes.
So we foresee good selling oportunities below 88.90 and specially below 88.00.
If prices close above 90.90 this possible bearish momentum gets cancelled.

EUR/USD: Wedge Falling will Indicate a Reversal?

2010-06-05T15:01:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The pattern Wedge Falling is still in place (see the thick blue lines...). We now have important support zones at 1.1860 ( low of March 10th, 2006) and 1.1830 (low of February 27th, 2006). As we still don´t have any clear sign of a bullish reversal or bottom, be aware of new SHORT positions below these levels.

Pay close attention too to the low of the past 6 years (since Januray 2004...) at 1.1640. Even though prices are still in a very strong bearish trend, we can´t take this suport level along with the pattern Wedge Falling for granted. They might work as a Bullish reversal.

USD/JPY: Prices Back into the Wedge Rising will Push Prices up to 95.00?

2010-06-05T14:55:00.003-03:00

(Click on the daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices got back into this major Wedge Rising and, last friday June 04th they did a classic pullback to the broken resistance at 91.42 that now became support. All that, along with the fact that last week closed above the resistance 91.80 favours a possible bullish trend up to 95.00

Therefore there are possible LONG positions above the following resistances: 92.00 / 92.35 / 92.90 / 93.65 and 94.60

Below the following support levels this possible bullish trend is negated: 91.60 and 91.40.

EUR/USD: Bullish Divergence in all Oscillators at the bottom 1.2144 Shows a Reversal?

2010-05-30T14:25:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

We have several contradictory signs for the Euro this week as below:
* The Double-Bottom (A) was formed in a very short period of time betwen its two bottoms, which cancels it. But;

* The vertical dot lines show a very important Bullish Divergence for all oscillators, which strongly favours this Double-Bottom;

* The Bullish day (B) on May 27th also favours this Double-Botton. But;

* The next day (C) should be a Bullish one as well, which is not. But we do have to take into account that this can be simply a short-term Bearish correction;

* We have a significant Wedge Falling pattern, which is a strong continuation pattern of the current Bearish trend.

Therefore our strategies are:
* SHORT below 1.2235 / 1.2178 / 1.2145

* LONG above 1.2385 / 1.2460 / 1.2522 / 1.2600 / 1.2675

USD/JPY: The Pullback to the Lower Trendline of a Broken Wedge Rising Will Mean a Continuation of the Current Bearish Trend?

2010-05-30T14:18:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

On May 20th the JPY broke down the lower trendline of an important Wedge Rising (see the "A" lines...) and during the whole last wek prices gone up just to do a pullback to this lower trendline that now became resistance, even forming a Spinning Top last friday May 28th, thus showing indecision in this important resistant level.

Therefore our strategies are:

* SHORT below 90.60, which will confirm all the patterns mentioned above and consequently the continuation of the current trend.

* LONG above 91.60, which will indicate a false breakout of this Wedge Rising. If that happen, prices might go for the top at 95.00

EUR/USD: Bullish Engulfing Will Leave its Bottom Untouched?

2010-05-22T16:11:00.002-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

It´s needless to say that the Euro continues its Bearish trend. But again, while I do my analysis on Saturday during closed markets I clearly see a bottom at dailies. So I ask myself: where I buy it?
But at the same time I´m hammered by the thought: "only amateurs look for tops and bottoms. I should go along the trend...".

With that said I will post my comments and strategies based on what I´m saying:
The Bullish Engulfing on May 19th along with 2 consecutive Bullish days, at exactly the Lower Trendline of a Broadening Wedge Descending, at historical bottom and with all oscillators very oversold, indicates that a bottom might occur.

So my strategy is:
* LONG above 1.2600 / 1.2675. All with a tight 30-STOP and LIMIT 1.2800

* SHORT below 1.2520 / 1.2475 / 1.2440. All with a tight 30-pip STOP and LIMIT 1.2330.

If prices broke down 1.2330 and specially if it goes below 1.2230 and 1.2145, then the Bears are still in control. Keep adding lots.

GBP/USD: Bullish Above 1.4500

2010-05-22T15:33:00.003-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

It might be worthed to click on the attached chart and open it in a different screen. You will see that the Cable hit the Lower Trendline of an important Bearish Channel and, at that support level, prices formed a Piercing Pattern on May 19th along with a Hammer the next day, May 20th. The next day May 21th being a Bullish one, along with all oscillators indicating a bottom strongly favour the bulls.
Also take notice of the major Broadening Wedge Descending highlighted in yellow. Another indication of a bottom.
So my strategy is:
* LONG above 1.4500 with a tight 30-pip stop and LIMIT at 1.4780.

Below 1.4420 this Bullish Momentum is negated.

USD/JPY: Bearish Below 89.00 Down to 84.90?

2010-05-22T15:10:00.003-03:00

(Click on the charts to enlarge them)

Daily Chart

01-Hour chart

The Yen broke down an important Bullish Trendline (see thick Blue line) at Dailies, with all oscillators favouring a Bearish rally.
The 01-Hour chart attached shows a clear Symmetrical Triangle below the broken Bullish Trendline, which is a continuation pattern, thus also favouring the bears.
So my strategies are:
* SHORT below 88.90 with STOP at 89.40 and LIMIT at 84.90. Add lots at the break of the following supports: 88.00 / 87.40 / 87.15 / 85.90

USD/CAD: Short-Term Bearish Correction, Then Bullish Above 1.0750

2010-05-22T14:48:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The USD/CAD definitely formed a significant bottom at 1.0000, and already rallied 750 pips. Now we clearly see the resistance at 1.0750, asking for a short-term Bearish correction.
Remember, the CAD is in a Bullish Rally. This is for a possible Bearish correction.

My strategies are:
*SHORT at the break of 1.0540 with a tight 30-pip stop and LIMIT 1.0445.

* LONG at 1.0445 with opened Limit. Add lots at the break of 1.0540 / 1.0630 and 1.0750

EUR/JPY: Broken Symmetrical Triangle Will Keep Pushing Prices Down?

2010-05-15T18:08:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

We clearly see that the EUR/JPY broke down a Symmetrical Triangle (see thick blue lines) two weeks ago, dropping from around 122.30 to 110.55 (1.175 pips!!!).

If prices will keep up with this pace is the $1 million question.
My strategy for the next week is:
* SHORT below 113.50 / 112.25 / 110.55
* LONG above 114.60 / 116.25

EUR/USD: Bottom at 1.2330?

2010-05-15T17:19:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Honestly I thought twice before posting a possible bottom at 1.2330 (Low of Oct 28th, 2008...) mainly because only newbies keep looking for tops/bottoms instead of trading along the current trend (the trend is your friend until it bends..).

The Euro region seems that it might take some time to let behind all the current doubts regarding its economic heath. So the current bearish trend might keep up.

We currently have a clear Broadening Wedge Descending, which is an important Bullish reversal....not to mention the historical bottom at 1.2330.
So my strategy is to keep selling the EUR below 1.2330. I will enter LONG only above the 1.2520.

GBP/USD: Broadening Wedge Descending Will Rule Cable´s move for this week?

2010-05-15T15:03:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Cable has clearly formed a Broadening Wedge Descending. Last week´s move showed that bears are still dictating its direction.

There´s an important support at 1.4476 that might hold the bears for a while. My strategy is:
*SHORT below 1.4476
* LONG above 1.4721 and specially 1.4760

EUR/USD: Still in a Bearish Momentum?

2010-05-01T18:40:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The series of lower highs and lower lows show that bears are still in control.

But prices closing above the 1.3268 last Friday indicates that bulls are stepping in.

My strategies are: LONG above 1.3342 and SHORT below 1.3268

USD/JPY: Shooting Star at Top?

2010-05-01T18:25:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

It´s been quite a while since a saw such a nice Shooting Star like this one.
My strategy is to enter SHORT below the following supports: 93.78 / 93.63 / 93.45 and 92.80. All aiming the 92.15 as Target.

USD/CHF: Double-Top at 1.0900 or Pullback to Upper Trendline of a Broken Symmetrical Triangle?

2010-05-01T18:08:00.005-03:00

(Click on the Daly chart to enlarge it)

The Swiss Franc´s Symmetrical triangle finally worked, unleashing the Bulls.
But the Double-Top formed at 1.0900 with an important Bearish Divergence at MACD is a concern.
Prices apparently did already the expected pullback to the Upper Trendline of this broken Bullish Symmetrical Triangle, at 1.0710 price area. If Bulls are really in control, prices aren´t supposed to get back to this 1.0710 level.
My strategy is to enter LONG at 1.0750 as support, and above the following resistances: 1.0786 / 1.0805 / 1.0850.
If the 1-Hour candles start closing below 1.0750 and specially 1.0710 the current Bullish Momentum might be jeopardized.

GBP/USD: Bearish After a Pullback to a Bearish Trendline as Resistance?

2010-05-01T17:56:00.005-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The nice top formed at 1.5500 two weeks ago with prices still locked in a Bearish channel favous the Bears.

Now after prices broke down a Short-Term Bullish Trendline and did a perfect pullback to it at the 1.5400 resistance area last week also favour the Bears, along with the fact that prices closed below the important level 1.5320.

My strategy is to enter SHORT at the folowing resistances: 1.5290 / 1.5320.

I will also look to enter SHORT below the following support areas: 1.5255 / 1.5225.

All entry levels above have the 1.5145 as their targets.
If prices broke down the supports 1.5145 / 1.5127 I will also look to enter SHORT, now with the target at 1.4900.

EUR/JPY: Shooting Star at 125.25 Resistance Level Will Drop Prices to 121.45?

2010-05-01T17:41:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices forming a nice Double-Top at 127.70 two weeks ago, along with the fact that they weren´t able to get sustained above the important level 125.25 last week favours the bulls.
The Shooting Star formation last Friday at exactly an important Bearish Trendline as Resistance is also another indicator that the EUR/JPY might has reached a top.
My strategy is to enter SHORT at 124.92 / 125.25 as Resistance, or below the following supports: 124.70 / 124.45 / 123.75

NZD/USD: Bullish Aiming 0.7400

2010-05-01T17:30:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

We clearly have the Kiwi forming higher highs and specially higher lows, configuring a strong Bullish trend possibly up to 0.7400.

Last week it broke up major resistance levels, also favouring the bulls.
My strategy will be to enter LONG at any important support area, mainly 0.7200 / 0.7150

USD/CAD: Bullish Above 1.0215

2010-05-01T17:20:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The bottom at 0.9977 and the strong Bullish move last Friday April 30th all show that bulls do want to take control.
Now we have an important resistance ahead, at 1.0215. My strategy is to enter LONG above this level, aiming the 1.0400 as the main target.

EUR/USD: Bearish Below 1.3346?

2010-04-24T10:47:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Euro still shows signs of a Bearish momentum, despite of the current Bullish Engulfing (but never take a Bullish Engulfing for granted...). Prices below the following suports confirms this current Bearish trend: 1.3346 / 1.3268 / 1.3203.
Prices only above 1.3679 / 1.3692 negates this current Bearish trend...

USD/CHF: Did this Symmetrical Triangle Work?

2010-04-24T10:31:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices finally broke up the Upper Trendline of this major Symmetrical Triangle and did a real nice pullback to it last Friday.

Whether this is really a pullback of a false breakout is the question we might be able to answer next Monday.
My strategy then is:
LONG above 1.0747 and 1.0804

If prices move below 1.0674 and 1.0661 this Bullish momentum might be negated.

GBP/USD: Bearish Below 1.5320

2010-04-24T10:23:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daly chart to enlarge it)

The Cable seems quite tricky now. Prices not breaking the resistance 1.5525 favours the Bears but we also have the important support area 1.5320 working very well, favouring the Bulls.

The Cable, as always, require an extra amount of cautiousness.

I will only enter LONG above the following resistances: 1.5400 / 1.5475 / 1.5525.

I will only enter SHORT below the following supports: 1.5320 / 1.5295.

USD/JPY: Bulls are Still Gaining Momentum?

2010-04-24T10:03:00.006-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

We clearly have the JPY gaining Bullish Momentum with the formation of a Bullish Channel at the 1-Hour chart.
Last Friday prices hit the resistance 94.30 and started a Bearish correction.
My strategy is to enter LONG at the following support areas: 93.77 / 93.63 and at the break of the resistances 94.30 and 94.80.
If prices move below 93.30 the current Bullish Momentum might be negated.
WATCH OUT for the main resistance 94.80.

EUR/JPY: 123.40 as the Main Suport Area?

2010-04-24T09:50:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week the support area 123.40 worked very well. But what makes me doubt of what´s the current trend is the Double-Top at 127.70 price zone.

So the question that remains here is this: is the last Friday´s Bullish move simply a correction of its Bearish Trend or the beginning of a Bullish one.

My strategies then are:
LONG at 125.20 or 124.80 support areas, depending of what candlestick pattern the 1-Hour chart forms there;
LONG at the break of the following resistances: 126.10 / 126.25 / 126.56

SHORT below 124.20 and 123.40

EUR/USD: Bullish to 1.4000 This Week?

2010-04-17T17:20:00.005-03:00

(Click on the attached charts to enlarge them)
Daily Chart

I know you might think I´m crazy to say that the Euro might rally to 1.4000, specially after the major resistance at the price zone 1.3680.

But notice the major Double-Bottom at 1.3280 and the fact that prices are still out of its main Bearish Channel.

Also take a look at the 01-Hour chart below:

You can see a nice Wedge Falling being formed, which is a highly accurate pattern for Bullish Reversals.

My strategy then is to enter LONG at the support zone 1.3460 / 1.3385 or at the break of 1.3530 and 1.3560.

USD/CHF: Symmetrical Triangle Still Playing its Role?

2010-04-17T17:10:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Notice a false breakout at the Lower Trendline of this major Symmetrical Triangle just for prices to hit the support zone 1.0508 and form a nice Bullish Engulfing.

My strategy will be to enter LONG at the support zone 1.0580 (if prices actually get there...) or at the break of the following resistances: 1.0620 / 1.0650.

GBP/USD: Bearish Below 1.5340 / 1.5320

2010-04-17T17:04:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Cable formed an Evening Star at resistance 1.5520. All oscillators want to indicate a new Bearish move but as always with the Cable one can´t never be too cautious.
So my strategy is to enter SHORT below 1.5340 and specially 1.5320.

USD/JPY: Bearish Below 91.90 Down to 88.60?

2010-04-17T16:47:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices´ lack of strenght to remain above the resistance level 93.77 possibly shows that Yen´s Bullish might be losing its momentum.
My strategy is to enter SHORT at the break of 91.90 with STOP at 92.25 and LIMIT at 90.20.

I´ll also look to enter SHORT at resistance 92.50 with a tight STOP (92.80) and the same LIMITS as above.

EUR/JPY: 121.40 as the Target for this Week?

2010-04-17T16:40:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices failing to break up the resistance 127.90 last week pushed prices down more than 300 pips to 124.40.

All oscillators are favouring an even bigger Bearish move but, remember that prices have dropped a lot already so a Bullish correction is expected.

My strategy is to enter SHORT at resistance 125.20 or at the break of support zones 124.20 / 123.87 and 123.44.

AUD/USD: Bearish to Bottom of Trade Range?

2010-04-17T16:26:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Aussie dropped significantly last week after prices almost hit the top of its current major Trade Range at the price zone 0.9400.

All oscillators are farourable for a new Bearish move but as prices are currently locked inside a Bullish channel, its consistent break is key for this new possible Bearish move.
So enter SHORT below 0.9220 and specially below 0.9200.

EUR/USD: Bullish Above 1.3509?

2010-04-10T17:34:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week´s move depicted in the attached daily chart clearly indicates that a strong Bullish trend might resume.
I´ll enter LONG above 1.3509 and will add lots at the break of 1.3535.
WATCH OUT!!! for the main resistance 1.3591. I strongly advice to close out all your long positions there and wait for a possible break up and a pullback to it to enter LONG again.
Prices below 1.3483 and specially 1.3446 negates this possible new Bullish momentum. Enter SHORT below these support levels...good trades to all.

USD/CHF: Symmetrical Triangle for this Week...

2010-04-10T17:22:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The CHF is clearly locked in a major Symmetrical Trangle, which is a very reliable pattern. It´s wise to wait for its breakout that might happen this week, considering how close to its vertice the prices are right now.
If you want to try to anticipate this move ( it´s my case...), enter SHORT below 1.0650 or LONG above 1.0700.

GBP/USD: LONG Above 1.5388 or SHORT Below 1.5320

2010-04-10T17:15:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Cable is finding too much resistance at 1.5388 by forming all kinds of top or Bearish Reversal candlestick patterns at the 1-Hour chart, such as Dragonfly Doji, Dojis, Shooting Stars, Hanging Man, Bearish Engulfing, and so on...with its Stochastics already losing steam.

My strategy is to enter LONG at the break up of this resistance level 1.5388.
If prices start going below 1.5360 I´ll enter SHORT with a tight stop (1.5390). If this Bearish Momentum confirms, I´ll add lots at the break down of 1.5320

USD/JPY: 93.77 is the High for this Week?

2010-04-10T16:59:00.005-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices broke up the important resistance level at 93.78 unleasing the bulls up to 94.80. Then prices started a Bearish correction bigger than expected, closing below the same 93.78 price level.

On April 08th prices formed a beautiful Hammer at exaclty an important Bullish Trendline, strongly favouring the Bulls.

But the fact that on April 09th prices found resistance, again, at the same important price level 93.78 and closed below this level, along with all oscillators at Overbought area and already pointing down, indicates that this Bullish momentum is losing steam.

So my strategy is to enter SHORT below the following support levels: 93.11 and 92.85.
I will enter LONG above 93.78.

AUD/USD: Top at 0.9330 or Still Room to Push up to 0.9400?

2010-04-10T16:46:00.005-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart attached to enlarge it)

The Aussie has its Oscillators on Dailies at Overbought area, with the 1-Hour chart forming a Wedge Rising and prices hitting the important resistance at 0.9330. All these factors show a possible top or a reversal...
But prices are still in the middle of a major Bullish Channel. And the pullback to the Bearish Trendline that got broken up last week indicates that prices still have room to push even further up maybe to the next resistance level 0.9406.
If u trade the opening on Sunday Evening my strategy is to enter SHORT at 0.9315 with STOP at 0.9335 and LIMIT at 0.9275.
For the upcoming week some caution is required. There isn´t any strong indication that a major Top has formed, so watch out for this Wedge Rising pattern at the 1-Hour chart for entry points.

EUR/USD: Upper Trendline of Major Bearish Channel will Work?

2010-04-03T10:15:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Euro hit the Upper Trendline of a very significant Bearish Channel, thus confirming its Bearish trend for this week.
But what about the 1.3435 Support level? It´s quite hard to say now if the Bears will take full control of if the Bulls will step in with force at 1.3435 support level.
The 1-Hour chart shows a nice short-term bullish channel. If prices break it down, the bears will be in control. If prices break up the resistance levels 1.3537 / 1.3600, then the bulls will be in full control next week.
So watch out for all of these levels / entry points.

USD/CHF: 50.00% Fibo at 1.0515 Will be the Last Major Support?

2010-04-03T10:06:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The main Morning Star formed at the support level 1.0515 (50.00%fibo of last major Bullish move 1.0134 to 1.0897), which is pretty close to the daily support level 1.0500, wants to tell me that maybe it will take some time for prices to reach these support levels again, thus unleasing the bulls.
It´s definitely tricky to find a nice entry point for my LONG. Anything above 1.0650 will have my full attention to enter LONG. LIMIT is 1.0897.

GBP/USD: Quick Bearish Correction Before Bullish Trend Resumes?

2010-04-03T09:57:00.005-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Cable formed a nice Double Bottom at Support level 1.4800, unleasing the bulls.

But the 1-Hour chart shows that a Bullish channel that started to get formed at this Double-Top got broken down last Friday, strongly indicating that a Bearish correction is expected.

Drawing a Fibonacci starting when prices began it´s last bullish push at this Double-Bottom (1.4800 to 1.5302), we have it´s first support at 23.60% at 1.5183.
My strategy will be to enter SHORT below this level, aming the 38.20% fibo at 1.5110.
Remember: this will be to trade a correction. Main trend is Bullish. So watch out for any indication of support to enter LONG. Those support levels would be: 1.5110 / 1.5050 and 1.4990.

USD/JPY: Bullish Up to 97.75

2010-04-03T09:49:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

It´s needless to say that the JPY is Bullish. The question is where to jump in to ride this trend.
I´ll enter LONG at any Bearish correction to the following support levels 94.05 / 93.70 or at the break of resistance 94.70.
If prices (1-Hour candle) closes below 93.70 a bigger Bearish correction is expected, possibly to 92.20 price area.
So extra caution will be demanding when trading the JPY this week.

AUD/USD: Trade Range or a New Bearish Trend?

2010-04-03T09:32:00.004-03:00

(Click on the daily chart to enlarge it)

It´s hard to say if the Aussie is accumulating at resistance level 0.9250 to form a major Trade Range (from 0.9325 to 0.8580) or if this resistance level will hold all bull attempts to push prices higher, thus triggering a new major Bearish Trend.
As prices are forming lower highs on dailies (see bearish trendline on chart attached) my strategy is to enter SHORT at the following levels:
* SHORT at break of 0.9170 with STOP at 0.9215 and LIMIT at 0.9130
* SHORT at break of 0.9130 with STOP 0.9150 and LIMIT 0.9070
* SHORT at break of 0.9060 with STOP at 0.9095 and LIMIT at 0.9010
Below 0.9000 I´ll add higher lots with tight stops and with limit at 0.8810

EUR/USD: 1.3435 as the Main Resistance for this Week?

2010-03-28T11:40:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Here goes the 1 Million question for the Euro: Is this a pullback to resistance 1.3435 just for prices to continue dropping or, the Morning Star formed last week will trigger a major Bullish trend?
It´s needless to say that if I knew the answer I would already have several entry orders placed.
But some price levels help me pinpointing my entry levels, as below:
* LONG above 1.3435 / 1.3445 with STOP at 1.3385 and LIMIT 1.3560.
* LONG at 1.3385 / 1.3350 as Support with STOP at 1.3325 and LIMIT 1.3560

* SHORT below 1.3268

USD/CHF: 1.0650 as the Main Support for This Week?

2010-03-28T11:31:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Apparently the CHF did a major pullback to the support zone 1.0650 just to continue it´s Bullish move.
But any 1-Hour candle closing below the suport levels 1.0637 / 1.0626 / 1.0606 and specially 1.0515 will negate this current Bullish momentum.
So caution will play a major role this week. My strategies will be:
* LONG above 1.0675 with STOPS always below 1.0637 and LIMIT 1.0875
* SHORT below 1.0637 with STOPS always above 1.0675 and LIMIT 1.0550

USD/JPY: Broadening Wedge Descending will Work?

2010-03-28T11:15:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The attached daily chart is kind of small with the purpose of showing you the major broadening Wedge Falling that was formed since April 2009 and got broken up last week, showing that a quite strong Bullish trend might resume.
On Broadening Wedge Falling formations, after the breakout prices tend to continue moving up so my strategy will be to enter LONG at any short-term pullback to the following support levels: 92.30 / 92.00 / 91.75.
But we have to take into account that a strong Bullish trend might resume. So another strategy will be to enter LONG at the break of the following resistances: 93.00 / 93.25 / 93.77.
My LIMIT for every long trade will be 97.75.

EUR/JPY:

2010-03-28T11:06:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices formed a bottom at the 121.40 support area, which is pretty close to the lower trendline of a major Bearish channel.

At the 1-Hour chart prices are locked into a short-term Bullish channel.
My strategy is to enter LONG but only above 125.21, aiming the 126.90 / 128.40 resistance levels.

AUD/USD: Bearish Below 0.9000

2010-03-28T10:58:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices broke down a Bearish Trendline last week, unleashing the bears. Apparently prices will get locked into a major Trade Range from 0.9325 to 0.8735 or 0.8578.
My strategy is to enter SHORT at any pullback to the following resistance levels: 0.9066 / 0.9086 / 0,9100 / 0.9136
I will also enter SHORT at the break of 0.9000

USD/CAD: Bullish Above 1.0225

2010-03-28T10:49:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

In the long-term prices have been forming a Descending Triangle with it´s flat base at 1.0225 price level.

Last week prices broke down this 1.0225 support level, indicating that a possible strong Bearish trend might resume. But at the end of last week prices got back into 1.0225, reaching 1.0300, thus showing that prices got their Bullish Momentum back. The 01-Hour chart has a perfect Bullish Channel...
So my strategy is to enter LONG at any pullback to 1.0225 / 1.0250 or at the break of 1.0325

EUR/USD: Bullish Above 1.3800?

2010-03-14T19:04:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last Friday March 12th prices hit the Upper Trendline of a bearish Channel, possibly waking up the bears.

But last week prices formed a significant bottom at 1.3440 price area, suggesting that this Bearish Channel might not hold the Bulls. So any candle closing above 1.3800 unleashes them. My strategy is to enter LONG at the break of 1.3853.

USD/CHF: A Rounding Top?

2010-03-14T18:49:00.002-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Apparently prices formed a nice Rounding Top, with the Bearish move from last Friday March 12th being the last push down before the Bullish trend resumes.

But having prices below 38.20 fibo from 1.0134 to 1.0897 kind of tells me that Bears are still in control.
Due to these contradictory information, my strategies will be:
* LONG at break of 1.0647
* LONG at 1.0515 (50,00% fibo from 1.0134 to 1.0897) as support
Below 1.0500 I will enter SHORT

GBP/USD: Bulls in Control Again?

2010-03-14T18:38:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices broke down an important Bearish Channel, unleashing the Bears from 1.5195 to 1.4873). But then the sellers didn´t have the strenght to maintain their pace, so prices pulled back into the broken Bearish channel (see thick blue lines...), showing that bulls have taken control again.
My strategy will be to enter LONG at any of the following support areas:
* 1.5135 (23.60% fibo from 1.4872 to 1.5219)
* 1.5087 (38.20% fibo from 1.4872 to 1.5219)
I´ll also enter LONG at the break up of the resistance 1.5219

EUR/JPY: Bearish Correction After Confirmation of Wedge Falling

2010-03-14T18:21:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices broke up the Upper Trendline of a Wedge Falling formation and did a nice pullback to it, unleashing the Bulls from 121.50 up to 125.21. Now prices formed a Double-Top at this resistance level (125.21), so a Bearish correction is expected.
It´s wise to wait for this correction before entering long.
I assume it´s hard to say until where prices will correct. Next support levels are:
* 124.43 (23.60% fibo from 121.91 to 125.21)
* 123.95 (38.20% fibo from 121.91 to 125.21)
So my strategies will be to enter LONG at any significant Bullish candlestick formation at these levels or, obviously, if prices broke up the 125.21 resistance level)

USD/CAD: Bearish Below 1.0155

2010-03-14T18:12:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The USD/CAD formed a major Descending Triangle since July 2009, with its Horizontal line at 1.0225 price area. This bottom was broken down last week, configuring a new bearish move.
My strategy is to enter SHORT at the break of 1.0155.
If prices got back into 1.0225, this will negate this possible new Bearish move. So that I will enter LONG at the break up of this level (1.0225)

EUR/CAD: Bottom at 1.3900 Support Zone

2010-03-14T17:58:00.003-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

The EUR/CAD formed an important support zone at 1.3900 price area, confirmed by a Hammer on March 09th, a significant Doji last week and all Daily oscillators at Oversold area.
My strategy is to enter LONG at the break of 1.4140, or SHORT at the break of 1.3850.

EUR/USD: Bottom at 1.3445 Calling for a Bullish Correction

2010-02-28T13:07:00.006-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Bottom formed last week at 1.3445 calls for a Bullish correction. So my strategies are:
* LONG at break of 1.3685 with STOP at 1.3630 and LIMIT at 1.3850
* LONG at break of 1.3711 with STOP at 1.3675 and LIMIT at 1.3850

If the 01-Hour candle closes below the 1.3550, watch out for a reversal. Then if prices continues to fall and closes below the 1.3445, this Bullish correction is negated.

USD/CHF: Calling for a Bearish Correction

2010-02-28T13:02:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week prices found Resistance at the Upper Trendline of a major Bearish Channel, thus calling for a Bearish correction.
My strategies are:

* SHORT at 1.0765 as Resistance with STOP at 1.0805 and LIMIT at 1.0610
* SHORT at break of 1.0712 with STOP at 1.0745 and LIMIT at 1.0610

* SHORT at break of 1.0695 with STOP at 1.0721 and LIMIT at 1.0610

If prices close the 01-Hour candle above the 1.0805, this Bearish correction is negated

GBP/USD: Bears Unleashed Below 1.5160

2010-02-28T12:46:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices broke, on Jan29th, an important Bullish Channel, doing a classic pullback to it on Feb 04th, thus resuming Cable´s Bearish Trend.
Now prices are trapped into a Bearish Channel but last week prices broke down its Lower Trendline and did a pullback to it last Friday Feb 26th, confirming its break down.
Weeklies are definitely Bearish so my strategies are:
* SHORT at 1.5310 / 1.5350 price zone as Resistance with tight STOP and Opened LIMIT

* SHORT below 1.5190 with STOP at 1.5230 and Opened LIMIT

If the 01-Hour candle closes above 1.5350 the strategies above are negated

USD/JPY: Bottom at 88.55 / 88.75 Price Zone

2010-02-28T12:31:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices found support at the price zone 88.55 / 88.75. So my strategy is:
* LONG above 89.00 with Stop at 88.70 and LIMIT at 90.30. When prices hit resistance at 89.50, move stop to break-even.

If prices close the 01-Hour candle below 88.75, this support level 88.75 / 88.55 is negated so my strategy will be:
* SHORT at any pullback to 88.55 price zone with a tight STOP and LIMIT at 87.40

EUR/JPY: Wedge Falling - Quick Bullish Correction

2010-02-28T12:22:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily Chart to enlarge it)

EUR/JPY is definitely Bearish, trapped inside a major Bearish Channel. But prices apparently formed,in a mid-term, a Wedge Falling, thus calling for a short-term Bullish correction.
So my strategy is:
* LONG at break of 121.60 with STOP at 121.30 and LIMIT at 122.50

* LONG at 120.50 as Support wit STOP at 121.35 and LIMIT at 122.50

* SHORT below 120.50 with STOP at 120.80 and LIMIT at 119.70

EUR/USD: Hammer at Bottom of Bearish Channel

2010-02-13T17:42:00.004-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

A False breakout last Friday Feb 12th of the significant support level 1.3585 and prices closing last Friday with a Hammer at the bottom of a Bearish Channel all strongly favour a Bullish move for the coming week.
I´ll enter LONG at the break of the following resistances: 1.3645 - 1.3700 - 1.3755. All with tight stops and LIMITS at 1.3860.
If the one-hour candles start closing below the 1.3585 support level this supposed Bullish move will be negated.

USD/CHF: Back inside its Bullish Channel?

2010-02-13T17:14:00.003-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last Friday prices did a nice false breakout at the major resistance level 1.0796, closing the day with a Shooting Star formation, and also closing below the 150.00% fibo projection at 1.0782.
These are all very good reasong to go SHORT at CHF but notice that prices are already outside a major Bullish channel. So patience is the key here.
I´ll enter SHORT only if next Monday starts with a Bearish day and my entry points will below 1.0718; 1.0700; 1.0677 and 1.0640. All these will have tight stops and their LIMITS will be 1.0510.

EUR/JPY: Hammer on Feb 12th

2010-02-13T16:56:00.003-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

See the Daily chart above. We have a nice Hammer formed on Feb 12th at the support level 121.58. What makes this Hammer significant is the following:
* Prices found support at 121.58 on Feb 04th;
* Did a false breakout at the same 121.58 on the following day (Feb 05th) just to push prices up to 124.18;
* After a Bearish move from 124.18, we had quick false breakout again at 121.58 with prices closing as a Hammer.
Odds are that 121.58 price area is working well as support. That is why I´ll try to catch LONG positionings at EUR/JPY during the next week. My entry points will be:
* LONG at 121.82 and 121.58 as Support levels, with tight stops.
* LONG at break of 123.00, 123.15, 124.18 and 124.50. All also with tight stops.
For all these entry levels the LIMIT is 126.50
If prices move below 122.00 and 121.58 this possible Bullish move will be negated.

USD/JPY: Long-Term Broadening Wedge, Descending - Bulls in Control

2010-02-13T16:38:00.006-02:00

(Click on the Daily charts to enlarge them)

See the Daily chart below. We clearly see a Broadening Wedge Descending formed since March 2009. This indicates that a major Bullish Trend might resume.

Now check a closer snapshot of Dailies below. Prices found support at 89.14 area and didn´t manage to go lower. And we clearly see a Symmetrical Triangle inside this Broadening Wedge descending, along with a Bullish Engulfing last Friday Feb 12th.
Those are strong reasons to go LONG in the coming days. My key entry points are:
* LONG at 89.14 and 89.60 as support. For these entry levels the stops are at 88.56 price zone.
* LONG at break of 90.40; 90.92 and 91.28. For these entry levels the stops are at 89.55 price zone.

USD/CHF: Will the 61.80% Correction Work?

2010-01-16T16:57:00.003-02:00

(Click on the 3-Hour chart to enlarge it)

CHF is still locked in a Bearish Channel. Last Friday it configured a Double-Top with the 2nd top forming a Shooting Star, all at the 3-Hour chart, at exactly 61.80% Bullish correction of last significant Bearish move 1.0385 - 1.0131.
My strategy is to Sell Short at break of the 38.20% of same Bearish move, which is 1.0228, with stop above the 50.00% fibo ( 1.0258) of again, same Bearish move, aiming the 1.0131 as 1st target.

USD/JPY: Wedge Rising Will Stop Bullish Momentum?

2010-01-09T17:28:00.003-02:00

(Click on the 3-Hour chart to enlarge it)

I reckon that the attached 3-hour chart comprises too many days so it´s hard to see the candles. But my goal here is to show how relevant the current Wedge Rising formation is.

The Dark Cloud Cover formation at Dailies on last Black Friday and the prices closing below the resistance 93.15 apparently confirm that a top at this level 93.15 might have been formed.
My strategy is to SELL SHORT at the break of the lower trendline of this Wedge Rising. I will add lots at any pullback to it.

EUR/USD: Flag/Pennant Will Resume a Bearish Trend?

2010-01-09T17:13:00.006-02:00

(Click on the 3-Hour chart to enlarge it)

Prices formed a beautiful Flag/Pennant, which is a high-probability continuation pattern of the current Bearish trend.
So my strategy is:
SHORT 1.4395 with STOP at 1.4451 and LIMIT....let the profits run on this one... or you can set the 1st one at 1.4221.
I urge you to keep trying to ride this bearish rally, in case u get stopped out in your first attempt and if this Flag/Pennant pattern gets confirmed. Resistance at 1.4451 might not work. Next relevant one is at 1.4484. If prices rally up to there, it´s a good entry point for sell short.

USD/CHF: Bullish Correction Up to Top of Bearish Channel

2010-01-09T17:04:00.003-02:00

(Click on the 3-Hour chart to enlarge it)

CHF is clearly locked in a Bearish Channel. The result of the Black friday where 85K jobs were lost against the forecast of only 10K dropped CHF to the bottom of this Bearish channel. A short-term Bullish correction is expected and according to the attached 3-hour chart odds are that it might happen.
So my strategy is:
LONG at 1.0245 with STOP 1.0215 and Limit at 1.0295.

USD/JPY: Bearish Channel Dictating this Week´s Move?

2009-12-05T11:23:00.007-02:00

(Click on the attached Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week was one of the most significant moves the Yen had in years: almost 500 pips...
Due to that, some Bearish correction is expected this week....
Prices definitely got back into this major Bearish Channel, favouring the Bulls untl prices ht its top/upper trendline. But riding this trend along won´t be an easy task...again, some correction is expected...
I´ll enter LONG at the following Supports:
* 90.22 (Monthly Pivot R1)...
* Fibo retracements from Last Black Friday´s Bullish move 88.31 to 90.77: 89.83 (38%), 89.54 (50%) and 89.25 (62%)...
* 89.20 (Low of Nov 01st) ...
I´ll watch out for any move below this level 89.20, that would negate the current Bullish momentum...
It´s also important to mention that I´ll try to Day-Trade SHORTS with these Fibo Retracements as LIMITS, specially if a Double-Top is formed at 90.77, at 91.32 or if prices are below 90.22 (Monthly Pivot R1...).

EUR/JPY: Trade Range of Bullish Channel?

2009-12-05T10:50:00.005-02:00

(Click on the attached Daily Chart to enlarge it)

I reckon tha the attached chart is too small, but what I´m aiming here is to show you the main patterns I see from November 2008 to current:
* Even though prices were locked, since around June 2009, in a major Trade Range (from 127.02 to 138.70), they were inside of a Major Bullish Channel.
* A break down of the Lower Trendline of this Bullish Channel on Nov 25th and the fact that prices got back into this Channel last friday shows a significant False Breakout, strongly favouring the Bulls.
The main question for the following couple of weeks is: will prices remain inside this Trade Range or will they chase the Upper Trendline of this major Bullish Channel?
Keep in mind that some Bearish retracement/correction is expected...
I´ll enter LONG at the following levels:
* Supports 134.30, 133.50 and 133.06.
* Broke resistances (wait for a pullback to them or close by...) 134.63, 135.00, 135.35 and 135.74 and 136.07.
* If the final resistance 136.07 really gets broken up, this might push prices up to the final resistances at 138.35 and 138.70.
* The 138.70 is the top of this major Trade Range. If this level also gets really broken up, Bulls might get unleashed to the top of this Bullish Channel or up to the next important resistance at 147.50.

EUR/USD: Double-Top at 1.5144 Will Unleash the Bears?

2009-12-05T10:30:00.004-02:00

(Click on the attached Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Double-Top formed at 1.5144 with a nice Shooting Star at Dec 03rd, after a False breakout up of this major Diamond Top indicates that a significant top has been formed.
A Bullish correction after the strong Bearish move due to the last Black Friday is expected.
I´ll enter SHORT at any significant Fibo retracements from last bearish move (from 1.5079 to 1.4821), which are: 1.4882 (23%), 1.4920 (38%) and 1.4950( 50%). Any move above the resistance level 1.4973 and the 1.4981 (62%) would negate the current Bearish Momentum.
I´ll also enter SHORT at the break down of the following supports: 1.4821 and 1.4802.
My LIMITS are: 1.4625, 1.4481 and 1.4487.

USD/CHF: Will This Major Diamond Bottom Work?

2009-12-05T10:05:00.004-02:00

(Click on the atta ched Daily Chart to enlarge it)

A False breakout at the bottom of this major Diamond Bottom last week, and a quick move back into it and a break up of its upper Bearish Trendline indicates that a bottom has been formed.
A Bearish correction is expected after the strong move last Black Friday.
I´ll enter LONG at a pullback to this Diamond Bottom´s upper Bearish Trendline at around 1.0128, or at any significant Fibo retracement from last Friday´s Bulilsh move (from 0.9984 to 1.0192), which are: 1.0143 (23%), 1.0112 (38%) and 1.0088 (50%).
Honestly, any move below the current support level 1.0076 and below the 1.0063 (62%) would negate the current Bullish Momentum.
I´ll also enter LONG at any level above the current tops 1.0192 and 1.0223.
My LIMITS are: 1.03380 and 1.0450.

USD/CHF: Will This Major Diamond Bottom Work?

2009-11-24T17:07:00.003-02:00

(Click on the Daily Chart to enlarge it)

Today November 24th we have a classic Diamond Bottom formed for CHF at a quite significant bottom (low since July 2008). As this pattern has a very low failure rate (13%), it pays off to pay close attention to it as an important reversal pattern...
The ideal trigger is to wait for prices to break out this Diamond. In other words, to wait for prices to break its last Bearish Trendline, which is around 1.0195 today.
If this pattern really works and we manage to ride a Long position, wait for a possible pullback (43% is the probability of a pullback) to the broken bearish trendline as support to add lots.
Target for this pattern is the 1.0450 (Oct 01st High).

USD/JPY: Morning Star on Nov 01st Cancelled? Prices are Bearish This Week?

2009-11-08T11:57:00.006-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Since mid August prices were forming a beautifull Broadening Wedge Descending pattern. On Oct 16th price broke up its upper line doing a nice throwback to it on Oct 20th, confirming this pattern and unleashing the bulls.
But on Oct 26th prices found resistance at 92.30 and formed a beautiful Evening Star with a Hanging Man, pushing prices down for another throwback to the upper trendline of this Broadening Wedge Descending on Nov 01st, forming a classic Morning Star even with a gap. This classic Morning Star confirmed once more that the Broadening Wedge descending worked as a Bullish Reversal pattern.
But, the strong Bearish move last Friday Nov 06th closing the gap of this Morning Star kind of cancels it.
So my strategy is to SELL SHORT at break of support area 89.87/80. I´ll add lots below 89.62 and 89.20. LIMIT is 88.83. If this level gets broken down too, I´ll keep trying to enter SHORT with LIMIT at 88.00
If I´m wrong I´ll enter LONG above 90.80.

EUR/USD: Bearish Engulfing on Nov 06th Will Push Prices Below the Current Bullish Channel?

2009-11-08T11:40:00.003-02:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

On Oct 23th prices hit the top of a major Bullish Channel at 1.5060 and formed a nice Bearish Engulfing Pattern with all oscillators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) showing very clear Bearish Divergences. All that made prices dropp 400 pips to then correct and form a nice Spinning Top on Nov 05th, showing indecision. The Bearish Engulfing Pattern the next day on Nov 06th reinforces that a major Bearish trend might resume.
So my strategy is:
*) if prices open this week and remains below 1.4850, I´ll SELL SHORT at any resistance below 1.4810. I´ll add lots below 1.4774 and 1.4755. LIMITS are 1.4684 and 1.4632
*) If I´m wrong I´ll enter LONG at break of 1.4914, watching very closely to filter out a possible false breakout

EUR/JPY: Evening Star on Nov 05th Will Work?

2009-11-08T11:18:00.007-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices are clearly locked in a major Trade Range. On Oct 25th prices formed a Tripple-Top at the top of this Trade Range at price area 138.35/70, dropping almost 800 pips to then correct and form a nice Evening Star with a very clear Hanging Man on Nov 05th.
So my strategy is to SELL SHORT at the following scenarios:
*) SELL SHORT at any important resistance, specially at price area 134.39/53 and 134.80.
*) SELL SHORT at a break and a throwback to 133.22. If this Bearish Trend resumes thus my SHORT trades work, their LIMITS are: 131.05, 129.05, 127.03 and finally 124.40.
If I´m wrong I´ll enter LONG at break and a throwback to 135.15 with LIMIT 136.00

USD/CHF: Wedge Falling Will Trigger a Nice Bullish Rally?

2009-11-08T10:57:00.007-02:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices are forming a nice Wedge Falling, but are still too far away from its apex. So it´s hard to say if this Wedge Falling will work this week, pushing prices up for a big Bullish rally.
A few factors raise the odds in favour of this Wedge Falling working this week, as below:
*) A clear Morning Star at major bottom 1.0033 on Oct 22th, with MACD and RSI showing a Bullish Divergence;
*) A Doji at bottom 1.0127 on Nov 05th, and prices closing higher than this support level on Nov 06th (Close at 1.0174).
My strategy for this week will be:
*) If prices broke down the support 1.0127 it will mean that this Wedge Falling still has some more room for a bearish move before actually working. So I´ll SELL SHORT, watching the next imporant support at 1.0033. Will add lots if this supoprt 1.0033 gets broken down;
*) If prices breaks up last Friday´s close at 1.0174 and remains above this level, I´ll enter LONG after a consistent break of resistance 1.0202. I´ll add lots if prices close above the upper line of this Wedge Falling, confirming the pattern. If that really happens, the LIMIT is quite sugnificant, at around 1.0930

USD/JPY: 94.00 as the Top for This Week?

2009-10-25T11:31:00.003-02:00

(Click on the Daily Chart to enlarge it)
The Yen is definitely Bullish, with no reversal pattern in sight.
The Sep 21th´s High at 92.54 might work as a short-term resistance: the Stochastics at Overbought area and RSI away from its 21-Period Moving Average reinforces this resistance level.
But make no mistake: Prices are Bullish, and locked up in a major Bullish Channel, with its top at around 94.00.
My strategy is to SELL SHORT ONLY if prices show any major Bearish Candlestick pattern at this short-term top 92.54, with a very tight 15-pip STOP and LIMIT at 91.72.
It won´t be an easy task to find support to enter LONG, which is my ultimate strategy for this week.
Any Bullish Candlestick pattern at the support levels 91.50, 91.20 or 90.60 triggers my LONG. I will add lots at break of 92.54, all aiming the 94.00 as LIMIT.

EUR/JPY: Bearish Correction from Top 138.72?

2009-10-25T11:07:00.004-02:00

(Click on the Daily Chart to enlarge it)

Prices are locked up in a major Bullish Channel.

But an important resistance level between 138.72 (Aug 07th´s High) and 139.22 (June 05th´s High) along with Stochastics at Overbought levels and RSI Away from its 21-Period Moving Average all favour a Bearish Correction.

My Strategy is to SELL SHORT at these aforementioned resistance levels with tight STOPS aiming the LIMITS 137.00 and 136.36.

I´ll add lots if prices broke down the support 136.07, but with extreme caution for any reversal pattern.
If I´m wrong I´ll enter LONG at break of 139.22

EUR/USD: New Hanging Man on Oct 22th Will Push Prices Down?

2009-10-25T10:43:00.006-02:00

(Click on the Daily Chart to enlarge it)

Last Thursday Oct 22th prices formed a beautiful Hanging Man at exactly the top of a Bullish Channel, which was confirmed by friday Oct 23th´s move showing a Bearish Engulfing of the Open and Close of this Hanging Man. An apparent Bearish move is in place...

We have all oscillators favouring this Bearish move: Stochastics at overbought area and MACD and RSI with a Bearish Divergence.

WATCH OUT!!! Last week on Oct 15th we had exactly the same move: a Hanging Man with a Bearish Engulfing the following day, which didn´t work: prices found support at 1.4844 and formed a new top at 1.5060. So the support level 1.4844 is a very important one...

So My strategy is to SELL SHORT at break of 1.4986 with STOP at 1.5015, add lots at break of 1.4968, all with LIMITS at 1.4888 and 1.4844.
If I´m wrong, enter LONG at break of resistance 1.5060...

USD/JPY: Broadening Wedge Descending in the Long-Term will Trigger the Bulls?

2009-10-04T11:26:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last week I mentioned that the Daily chart from Jan 2007 to current shows a beautiful Broadening Wedge Descending, with the Stochastics making higher lows while prices made lower lows (Bullish divergence), thus favouring a possible major reversal pattern.
Now, the Hammer formation last Friday Oct 02nd at the main support area 88.24, without prices moving further down to re-test the bottom at 87.14, with Stochastics kicking up are all excellent reasons for LONG positions.
My strategy is to enter LONG at any support level above 89.78, and will add lots at break of the following resistance levels: 90.21, 90.50, 91.03 and 91.65.
If prices start moving down below 89.21 and breaks the low of this Hammer formation at 88.61, thus cancelling it, I´ll re-analyse the market for SHORT entries.

EUR/JPY: Spinning Top Showing Indecision

2009-10-04T11:11:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

In the beginning of this week prices broke down the lower trendline of a major Bullish Channel, favouring the bears.
Now, last Friday Oct 02nd prices formed a Spinning Top at the major support area 129.84, showing indecision. A rule of thumb for Spinning Tops is that the next trading day will probably move in the direction of the opening price.
So my strategy will be to follow this rule: if prices open above 130.35 and keeps heading up, I´ll enter LONG, aiming the 132.03 and 132.60 as LIMITS; if prices open below 130.35 and keeps heading down, I´ll enter SHORT and will add lots at the break of 129.84 and 129.05.

EUR/USD: Bottom of Bullish Channel will Hold The Bears?

2009-10-04T10:15:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices last Friday Oct 02nd hit the lower trendline of a major Bullish Channel, strongly favouring the bulls.
My strategy is to enter LONG at any candlestick pattern showing support levels above 1.4575 (Last friday´s close), and will add lots at the break of 1.4648 (Last friday´s high) and 1.4674.
I will watch very closely the main resistance levels 1.4721 and 1.4771, and will enter SHORT at any main Bearish Candlestick patterns at these levels. I´ll only enter LONG above these levels if they got broken up consistenly and prices do a pullback to them (resistance becoming support...).
If a Bearish trend resumes, I will enter SHORT at the break of 1.4515 (Oct 01st´ Close and Oct 02nd´s Open), and I´ll add lost at the break of 1.4481 (last friday´s low) and 1.4447.

USD/JPY: Broadening Wedge Descending in the Long-Term will trigger the Bulls?

2009-09-27T18:00:00.006-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

I know it is not my intention here to make long-term analysis. After all, I am a Day Tader.
But take a look at this attached Daily chart from Jan 2007 to current. It shows a beautiful Broadening Wedge Descending as a reversal pattern. And the Stochastics making higher lows while prices make lower lows (Bullish divergence) favours a possible major reversal pattern.
Obviously I won´t fight against the current short-term bearish trend, and will try to ride it.
But I will keep in mind this reversal pattern and will look with extra care for the support levels: 89.71, 88.45, 88.00 and finally the Double-Bottom at 87.14.
If prices break up the 90.22 I will enter LONG, and will add lots at the break up of 90.50.
Other than that my strategy is to SELL SHORT at the following resistances: 90.22, 89.70 and 89.52

EUR/JPY: A Break Down of a Bullish Channel?

2009-09-27T17:36:00.005-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Prices clearly broke down a Bullish Channel, possibly unleashing the bears. But the 131.52 / 131.03 is an important support zone.
And even though the Stochastics are pointing down, it is too away from its signal line, showing that this support zone 131.52/131.03 might work.
My strategy is for caution. A pullback to 132.20 might happen...
So, any strong move above 132.20 favours the bulls and the break down of the support zone 131.52/131.03 triggers a big bearish move. I will try to catch these moves...

EUR/USD: Dark Cloud Cover Will Work This Week for the Bears?

2009-09-27T17:14:00.005-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

On Sep 23th we have a very clear Dark Cloud Cover after a false breakout at top 1.4770, pattern confirmed by the next day Set. 24th being a Bearish day.
All oscillators (Stochastics turning down from overbought area, MACD below its signal line and pointing down, RSI below its Moving Average) favour this Candlestick pattern, thus a Bearish move is expected. My strategy is to SELL, specially at break of 1.4651, adding lots at break of 1.4612.
Watch for a possible pullback to resistances 1.4724 and 1.4770.
A break up of the resistances 1.4770 and 1.4802 would negate this Dark Cloud Cover formation, thus triggering a new Bullish move.

EUR/USD: Hanging Man on Sep 18th will put Bears in Control?

2009-09-20T16:56:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Prices formed a beautiful Hanging Man on Sep. 18th at the very important resistance level 1.4720 (High of Dec. 18th, 2008). All oscillators are at overbought levels so my strategy is to enter SHORT at any opportunity (resistance level).
WATCH OUT for support 1.4647. I´ll add lots at break of this support.

EUR/JPY: Undefined Trend....

2009-09-20T16:41:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Dailies are quite unclear...prices hit a resistance at 134.50 with a Bearish Harami last Friday Sep. 18th. This favours the Bears but in the beginning of last week prices hit a bottom of a major Bullish Channel and now all indicators/oscillators are pointing up.
That is why the EUR/JPY is unclear...
In the short-term scenario prices are trapped in a Bullish channel.
My strategy is to go SHORT at break of 133.70 or enter LONG if this same price level 133.70 works as support.
If a Bullish trend resumes I will add lots at break of 134.50 and 134.77.
If a Bearish trend resumes I will add lots at break of 133.32 and 132.80

EUR/USD: Shooting Star at 1.4630 Will Push Prices Down?

2009-09-13T18:48:00.004-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

Last Friday Sep. 13th formed a beautiful Shooting Star at the Top of 1.4631 (Low of August 19th, 2008), with Stochastics at overbought levels and RSI Away from its Moving Average.
My strategy is to SELL SHORT at break of 1.4582.
Watch for the following supports: 1.4535, 1.4504, 1.4447.

EUR/JPY: Bearish Below 131.45?

2009-09-13T18:31:00.003-03:00

(Click on the Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Resistance at 134.41 last wek confirmed the current Bearish trend...
Now, prices are at exactly the bottom of a major Bullish Channel. So expect a Bullish correction before a new wave of this Bearish trend resumes.
My strategy is to SELL SHORT at the following resistances: 132.19, 132.45 and 132.82. I don´t expect prices to correct this far but watch out for a possible strong Bullish correction up to the final resistance at 133.32, which is exactly the 61.80% Fibo correction of the last bearish move 134.41 to 131.56.

USD/JPY: Bullish Engulfing Will Push Prices Up to 95.00?

2009-09-06T13:18:00.006-03:00

(Click on the attached Daily chart to enlarge it)

The Double-Bottom at 91.94 with an Engulfing Pattern on Sep. 03rd, confirmed with the next day Sep 04th being a Bullish day; the Stochastics at very oversold levels, with its signal line (%D) crossing up the Stochastic (%K) line which is pointing up; MACD also pointing up below its reference line, all that strongly favour the Bulls.
It is definitely worthed to try to ride this supposedly new Bullish move. In other words: don´t let missed opportunitities or a few trades being stopped out getting you out of this Bullish move.
So my strategy is to enter LONG at the following supports: 92.95, 92.85, 92.78/72 price area, 92.52 and 92.30.
Prices might not get that far down, so my strategy will also enter LONG at the break of the following resistances: 93.23 and 93.43.
Targets are: 93.90 and 95.00.

EUR/USD: Diamong Top Will Work?

2009-09-06T12:55:00.003-03:00

(Click on the attached Daily chart to enlarge it)

This Diamond Top seems that it´s still in place. Stochastic favours a possible major Bearish move.
But after last week´s move some caution is required here. As the current phase of this Diamond is a Symmetrical triangle, the break of its lower trendline is required to confirm this pattern.
We also have very important support areas close by. So my strategy will be to enter SHORT at the break of the following supports (if you cannot get into the trade at these breaks, enter SHORT at a pullback to them...): 1.4290, 1.4257, 1.4237, 1.4207 and 1.4191. All with tight STOPS. If these entry points work, keep moving the STOPS in your favour aiming the following LIMITS: 1.4050, 1.4008, 1.3877, 1.3830 and projected LIMIT for this Diamond: 1.3750.

EUR/JPY: Morning Star Will Push Prices Up to 136.00?

2009-09-06T12:22:00.005-03:00

(Click on the daily attached chart to enlarge it)

The Morning Star formation confirmed by the long Bullish day last Friday Sep. 04th, formed at the bottom of a major Bullish Channel, at the important support level 131.40/50, with Stochastics at oversold area and turning up, all favour the Bulls.
On a short-term analysis the 30-minute chart shows a beautiful Broadening Wedge Descending that also favours the bulls.
But some correction down is expected. 132.95 price zone is an important resistance area.
So my strategy is to enter LONG at any of these support areas: 132.55, 132.30 and 132.10. All with targets 133.90, 134.50 and 136.00.
If you will trade the opening of this week (Sunday evening...), a quick SHORT move is expected. So enter SHORT at break 132.90 with STOP 133.03 and LIMIT 132.70

USD/JPY: Bottom at 93.10?

2009-08-30T18:22:00.008-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

The Yen broke an important support at 93.55. Seems that the bears are unleashed.
I confess that I strongly feel tempted to try to ride this supposed major bearish move.
BUT my trading system does NOT allow me to SELL at support. See the attached daily chart:
* Stochastics are oversold;
* Prices are at a major Bullish Trendline;
* 93.09 is July 22th´s low, the Close of July 13th and the Open of July 14th;
* MACD is already negative and;
* RSI is away from its Moving Average.
Just too many reasons NOT to enter SHORT.
So my strategy is to enter LONG at 93.10 price zone targetting 94.50

EUR/USD: Diamond Top?

2009-08-30T17:44:00.007-03:00

(Click on the chart to enlarge it)

Euro shows a beautiful Diamond Top. The false breakout at its upper line on Aug. 27th wants to confirm it, along with the Stochastics at overbought area.
As Diamond Tops aren´t as reliable as Diamond Bottoms, confirmation is required.
Strategy is to enter SHORT at break of its lower trendline, which would be at around 1.4280.
REMEMBER: prices are trapped in a Bullish Channel so pay attention to the support zone at around 1.4200.
If this Diamond Bottom really works its projection is 1.3830 price zone.